Introduction
Annual national forecast needs to be entered into OpenLMIS rather than building in the various forecasting logic required, especially because there are different methodologies and sometimes mixed methods for determining forecast. But some information must also be included as text to capture the methodology used, the assumptions, and any constraints that affected the final quantity forecasted (e.g. budget limits or storage capacity). Forecast should be the true "constrained forecast" on which supply plans and forecast accuracy are based. OpenLMIS should enable upload of forecast for all levels if the program follows the traditional WHO methodology.
- If the annual forecast is used for allocation/push resupply to lower levels (the traditional WHO methodology), this process can be used for either routine or campaigns, since the target-based methodology is the same. However, campaigns are otherwise out of scope for MVP
Calculate/Enter Product Need/Estimate | View Forecasted Product Needs | Calculate Pipeline | |
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Provide upload file option for annual needs forecast (i.e. needs calculated externally) | View forecasted needs for each product and multiple time periods | Calculate central future stock position Down Vote: 1 | View pipeline |
Modify annual needs forecast/ targets as a DIVO Down Votes: 2 | view forecasted needs each storage point by product and time period Votes: 8 | Calculate intermediate level future stock position Votes: 3 | |
Create rights for managing annual needs forecasts or Ideal Stock Levels | Reorder Calc in Requisition Votes: 4 | ||
WHO formula calculator Votes: 5 | |||
Aggregate forecasted product needs for campaigns Votes: 2 | |||
Display the formula used for calculation to the viewer | |||
Provide a calculation demo to viewer to confirm accuracy of calculation | |||
Enter forecasted product needs for campaigns → enter SDP microplan forecast for campaign into OpenLMIS campaign screen | |||
Provision of extension points to countries to customize needs estimation on their own | |||
Provide all levels an option to correct annual needs forecast (i.e instead of set annual population targets) |
Source: Final MVP whiteboard from Vaccines Workshop: Vaccine Workshop Notes and Whiteboards - May 2-4 2017
Out of Scope
- National forecast planning process
Open Questions
Question | Outcome |
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Detailed Scope Activity
Page Properties Report | ||
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Background
Ashra Islam (JSI), Gemma Orta-Martinez (UNICEF), Jorgen Kofoed (UNICEF), Alpha Omari (JSI) attended the breakout session at the OpenLMIS Vaccine Module Workshop.
Reporting Outcomes
KPIs:
- Forecast Accuracy (National level is a must, lowers levels if resupply is by allocation/push)
- Stock at Risk (projected stock outs or expiry alerts by location, antigen, and $ value) (all levels)
Reports:
- Forecast per antigen based on any methodology: demographic, session size, historical consumption trend, or a mix of these (e.g. demographic first, adjusted by historic consumption trend to keep it reality based in order to avoid overstock).
- If using consumption, must adjust for reporting rate from facilities if less than 100%
- Forecast accuracy, by level, time period, antigen, volume/quantity, and $ value. Compares forecast to actual consumption (adjusted at national level for reporting rate) for a specific period of time, and presents the data as a percentage (e.g. 93% accuracy means actual consumption is 93% or forecasted consumption). Also displays the $ value of the difference (7% below forecast = $X.00 worth of product(s) not used)
- Pipeline report (national level is a must, other levels nice to have if allocation/push system): SOH, future stock position based on AMC rate (including coverage and wastage), and planned inbound shipments.
- AMC must take into account reporting rate from facilities if less than 100%
Dependencies
- Census data (dis-aggregated to locality)
- Birth cohort Data by SDP
- Average session size data by SDP
- Historic consumption data by SDP
- Antigen Dose per vial
- Immunization schedule
- target coverage
- reporting rate (% reporting)
- open vial wastage rate
- closed vial wastage rate
- national stock status (whole pipeline)
- forecast accuracy for adjustment
- previous order fill rate (esp. from supplier UNICEF)
- Funding availability