[SELV] Forecasting & Estimation: Estimating Vaccine Needs

Goals/Scope

This functionality seeks to provide users of the system a way to estimate vaccine product need across a series of variables. Successful acceptance of this functionality would involve the following:

Estimation of product is done considering at least the following factors in its calculation (target population for that particular vaccine, buffer stock level, wastage rate level, number of doses in the vaccination schedule) and potentially historical consumption, CCE functioning status, CCE capacity

Estimates of the product is displayed/viewable in multiple views, such as – estimates of all products for a certain facility, district, store, province, region, etc; need estimates of a single product over multiple time periods (month, six weeks, quarters, years, etc).

Background

Effective vaccine management requires accurate vaccine forecasting and needs estimation, as well as adequate stock ordering that follows the delivery schedule, in conformity with cold chain capacity. This page focuses on the former and adequte stock ordering is captured under the "delivery/supply requirements" pages.

Forecasting/Needs estimation can be calculated using:

• Target population provided by MoH, usually based on census projections
• Buffer stock and acceptable wastage rate policy set by MoH/EPI Program
• Previous consumption (more likely to be considered at national level but ideally should be reviewed by lower levels as well as part of data analysis/performance improvement cycles);
• Available CCE capacity and functionality status

The accuracy of vaccine forecasting and needs estimation depends upon both the level of implementation (national, district or local service delivery) and the time period of estimation used (month, year, multi-year). Whichever method is applied, the accuracy of the estimation will depend upon the quality of data used; this is a pressing issue in the iSC space, and which we will cover under the "Reporting" Domain when looking at ways of reporting the "In-Full Order Delivery" indicator.

Assumptions

• Users will primarily access this information in close conjecture with the features in the "delivery/re-supply domain"
• In push based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how to package deliveries to an area and load the cold box/distribution truck
• In pull based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how much to request for their next order
• In both scenarios, it is likely that while users will "View" this information online, they would also take a print out of the page to show in meetings, with supervisors etc so that needs to be considered

User Stories

Diagrams

Dependencies

Open Questions

Below is a list of questions to be addressed as a result of this requirements document:

Out of Scope