Forecasting&Estimation Domain: Estimating Vaccine Needs in the Stock Management Tool (SMT)
Target release | Vaccine Module |
Epic | Forecasting and Estimation |
Document status | DRAFT |
Document owner | Jenny Thompson <jthompson@path.org> |
Technical Lead | Brian Taliesin <btaliesin@path.org> |
Goals/ScopeCan consider later if we want to include calculation data needs in goals/scope section. ???Seems to be written to provide for national level stock management. Confirm this isn't being done and doesn't need to be included, e.g. if statements include prog B10 cell and that level of supply interval, on the prog tab, which I think is just for the national level.
This functionality seeks to provide users of the system a way to estimate vaccine and supply product I think Rachel said saying vaccine product includes supplies/assumes that?need across a series of variables to enable replenishing the store and accounting for lead time requirements. Successful acceptance of this functionality would involve the following:
Estimation of product is done considering at least the following factors in its calculation (target population for that particular vaccine, buffer stock level, minimum stock, maximum stock, For the period as I understand itwastage rate level, number of doses in the vaccination schedule, stock available, supply interval, lead time, Cold Chain Equipment (CCE): CCE functioning status, CCE capacity, storage volume required, and historical consumption within the current year, Estimates of the product are displayed in multiple formats and views, including:
- estimates of all products for a certain facility, district, store, province, region, etc.
- need estimates of a single product over multiple time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly).
Background
Effective vaccine management requires accurate vaccine forecasting and needs estimation, as well as adequate stock ordering that follows the delivery schedule, with supplies necessary for administering vaccines and in conformity with cold chain capacity. Forecasting/needs estimation can be calculated using:
- Target population provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), usually based on census projections and coverage projections
- Supply interval and lead time by vaccine
- Safety stock and acceptable wastage rate policy set by MoH/EPI Program
- Available CCE capacity and functionality statusI haven't included this in the flow. I don't see anywhere where the total on the forecast tab with what's being ordered is pulled into the storage tab, so someone could be flipping back and forth to these, but it doesn't appear to be automated.
Assumptions
- Users will primarily access this information with the features in the "delivery/re-supply domain"
- Catchment population data and wastage rates are available and, to meet needs, at a minimum level of accuracy.
- Target population provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), usually based on census projections.
- On hand quantity is accurate. In push-based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how to package deliver ies to an area and load the cold box/distribution truck
- In pull-based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how much to request for their next order Future follow up: These would be dependent on these requirements.
User StoriesCould add in additional user stories, e.g. EPI review of requisition.
# | Title | User Story | Label | Importance | Notes |
1 | View needs estimates for facilities in a district | As a district EPI supervisor, I want to see the needs estimates for all of the facilities in my district so that I can ensure the stock in my district depot is enough to meet their needs via next scheduled re-supply and so I know when to place a requisition order from the level above for additional stock. | SMT | Must Have |
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2 | View needs estimates for storage points under a specific intermediate store | As an intermediate vaccine store manager, I want to see the needs estimates for all the storage points dependent on me (district depots, zonal depots, etc.) so I can ensure the stock in my district depot is enough to meet their needs via next scheduled re-supply and so I know when to place a requisition order from the level above for additional stock. | SMT | Must Have |
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3 | Print-Everything below here's been added. -estimates and forecasts | -As a DIVO, I want to print estimates and forecasts so that I can show them in meetings and share them with supervisors-Cutting print functionality (that I'd pulled down from above), as current sheet doesn't seem to provide this. |
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3 | Calculate product estimate for my own store. | As a DIVO, I want to be able to see historical data for product in my store in visual and tabular formats so that I can restock product in my store. | SMT |
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4 | Share estimated quantity for requesting product. | As a DIVO, I want to be able to send a requisition for product to the national level that includes the details for my store. |
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DiagramsUpdate language based on what's going where, unless I'm missing something?
Annotation
- *Confirm on hand quantity*Assuming this is happening outside of this flow, so could be pulled off of here.
- Estimate Need
Tool performs calculation of quantity to order for replenishment. Calculation is the difference of the maximum stock minus the stock on hand times the needs for the upcoming period (annual need *lead time requirement). The maximum stock is what is needed for the current period plus the reserve stock to be maintained.
Definitions of "forecast" tab vaccine calculations:
National level workbook:
Column Name | Formula |
Supply period | Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for the specific product (converted to annual |
Stock_reserve | Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for the specific product (converted to annual) |
Stock_reorder | Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for the specific product (converted to annual) + Stock_reserve (calculated value) |
Stock_maxi | Supply period (calculated) + Stock_reserve (calculated) |
Quantity ordered | Stock_maxi – Stock available + Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for the specific product (converted to annual) |
Subnational workbook:
Column Name | Formula |
Supply period | Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for vaccines (converted to annual |
Stock reserve | Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for vaccines (converted to annual) |
Stock reorder | Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for vaccines (converted to annual) + Stock_reserve (calculated value) |
Stock maxi | Supply period (calculated) + Stock_reserve (calculated) |
Quantity ordered | Stock_maxi – Stock available + Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for vaccines (converted to annual) |
- Submit SMT workbook
DIVO submits workbook to DIVO with ordered quantity.
- Approve incoming requisition
EPI reviews requested quantities
- Place order
EPI moves requisition on in process.
Dependencies
Description | Link |
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Product Inventory List/Supplies tabTabs: Characteristics of safe injection equipment and other supplies
Characteristics of vaccines
Inventory Management
Open Questions
Below is a list of questions to be addressed as a result of this requirements document:
# | Question | Outcome | Status |
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