Forecasting&Estimation Domain: Estimating Vaccine Needs in the Stock Management Tool (SMT)

Target release	Vaccine Module
Epic	Forecasting and Estimation
Document status	DRAFT
Document owner	Jenny Thompson <jthompson@path.org>
Technical Lead	Brian Taliesin <btaliesin@path.org>

This functionality seeks to provide users of the system a way to estimate vaccine and supply product I think Rachel said saying vaccine product includes supplies/assumes that?need across a series of variables to enable replenishing the store and accounting for lead time requirements. Successful acceptance of this functionality would involve the following:
Estimation of product is done considering at least the following factors in its calculation (target population for that particular vaccine, buffer stock level, minimum stock, maximum stock, For the period as I understand itwastage rate level, number of doses in the vaccination schedule, stock available, supply interval, lead time, Cold Chain Equipment (CCE): CCE functioning status, CCE capacity, storage volume required, and historical consumption within the current year, Estimates of the product are displayed in multiple formats and views, including:

estimates of all products for a certain facility, district, store, province, region, etc.
need estimates of a single product over multiple time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly).

Background

Effective vaccine management requires accurate vaccine forecasting and needs estimation, as well as adequate stock ordering that follows the delivery schedule, with supplies necessary for administering vaccines and in conformity with cold chain capacity. Forecasting/needs estimation can be calculated using:

Target population provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), usually based on census projections and coverage projections
Supply interval and lead time by vaccine
Safety stock and acceptable wastage rate policy set by MoH/EPI Program
Available CCE capacity and functionality statusI haven't included this in the flow. I don't see anywhere where the total on the forecast tab with what's being ordered is pulled into the storage tab, so someone could be flipping back and forth to these, but it doesn't appear to be automated.

Assumptions

Users will primarily access this information with the features in the "delivery/re-supply domain"
Catchment population data and wastage rates are available and, to meet needs, at a minimum level of accuracy.
- Target population provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), usually based on census projections.
On hand quantity is accurate. In push-based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how to package deliver ies to an area and load the cold box/distribution truck
In pull-based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how much to request for their next order Future follow up: These would be dependent on these requirements.

User StoriesCould add in additional user stories, e.g. EPI review of requisition.

#	Title	User Story	Label	Importance	Notes
1	View needs estimates for facilities in a district	As a district EPI supervisor, I want to see the needs estimates for all of the facilities in my district so that I can ensure the stock in my district depot is enough to meet their needs via next scheduled re-supply and so I know when to place a requisition order from the level above for additional stock.	SMT	Must Have
2	View needs estimates for storage points under a specific intermediate store	As an intermediate vaccine store manager, I want to see the needs estimates for all the storage points dependent on me (district depots, zonal depots, etc.) so I can ensure the stock in my district depot is enough to meet their needs via next scheduled re-supply and so I know when to place a requisition order from the level above for additional stock.	SMT	Must Have
3	Print-Everything below here's been added. -estimates and forecasts	-As a DIVO, I want to print estimates and forecasts so that I can show them in meetings and share them with supervisors-Cutting print functionality (that I'd pulled down from above), as current sheet doesn't seem to provide this. Not including story about comparing .
3	Calculate product estimate for my own store.	As a DIVO, I want to be able to see historical data for product in my store in visual and tabular formats so that I can restock product in my store.	SMT
4	Share estimated quantity for requesting product.	As a DIVO, I want to be able to send a requisition for product to the national level that includes the details for my store.

DiagramsUpdate language based on what's going where, unless I'm missing something?

Annotation

*Confirm on hand quantity*Assuming this is happening outside of this flow, so could be pulled off of here.

Estimate Need

Tool performs calculation of quantity to order for replenishment. Calculation is the difference of the maximum stock minus the stock on hand times the needs for the upcoming period (annual need *lead time requirement). The maximum stock is what is needed for the current period plus the reserve stock to be maintained.
Definitions of "forecast" tab vaccine calculations:
National level workbook:

Column Name	Formula
Supply period	Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for the specific product (converted to annual
Stock_reserve	Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for the specific product (converted to annual)
Stock_reorder	Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for the specific product (converted to annual) + Stock_reserve (calculated value)
Stock_maxi	Supply period (calculated) + Stock_reserve (calculated)
Quantity ordered	Stock_maxi – Stock available + Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for the specific product (converted to annual)

Subnational workbook:

Column Name	Formula
Supply period	Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for vaccines (converted to annual
Stock reserve	Annual estimated doses needed * supply interval for vaccines (converted to annual)
Stock reorder	Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for vaccines (converted to annual) + Stock_reserve (calculated value)
Stock maxi	Supply period (calculated) + Stock_reserve (calculated)
Quantity ordered	Stock_maxi – Stock available + Annual estimated doses needed * lead time for vaccines (converted to annual)

Submit SMT workbook

DIVO submits workbook to DIVO with ordered quantity.

Approve incoming requisition

EPI reviews requested quantities

Place order

EPI moves requisition on in process.

Dependencies

Description	Link

Product Inventory List/Supplies tabTabs: Characteristics of safe injection equipment and other supplies
Characteristics of vaccines
Inventory Management

Open Questions

Below is a list of questions to be addressed as a result of this requirements document:

#	Question	Outcome	Status
1

Out of Scope