Forecasting&Estimation Domain: Estimating Vaccine Needs in the Stock Management Tool (SMT)

Goals/ScopeCan consider later if we want to include calculation data needs in goals/scope section. ???Seems to be written to provide for national level stock management. Confirm this isn't being done and doesn't need to be included, e.g. if statements include prog B10 cell and that level of supply interval, on the prog tab, which I think is just for the national level.

This functionality seeks to provide users of the system a way to estimate vaccine and supply product I think Rachel said saying vaccine product includes supplies/assumes that?need across a series of variables to enable replenishing the store and accounting for lead time requirements. Successful acceptance of this functionality would involve the following:
Estimation of product is done considering at least the following factors in its calculation (target population for that particular vaccine, buffer stock level, minimum stock, maximum stock, For the period as I understand itwastage rate level, number of doses in the vaccination schedule, stock available, supply interval, lead time, Cold Chain Equipment (CCE): CCE functioning status, CCE capacity, storage volume required, and historical consumption within the current year, Estimates of the product are displayed in multiple formats and views, including:

• estimates of all products for a certain facility, district, store, province, region, etc.
• need estimates of a single product over multiple time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly).

Background

Effective vaccine management requires accurate vaccine forecasting and needs estimation, as well as adequate stock ordering that follows the delivery schedule, with supplies necessary for administering vaccines and in conformity with cold chain capacity. Forecasting/needs estimation can be calculated using:

• Target population provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), usually based on census projections and coverage projections
• Supply interval and lead time by vaccine
• Safety stock and acceptable wastage rate policy set by MoH/EPI Program
• Available CCE capacity and functionality statusI haven't included this in the flow. I don't see anywhere where the total on the forecast tab with what's being ordered is pulled into the storage tab, so someone could be flipping back and forth to these, but it doesn't appear to be automated.

Assumptions

• Users will primarily access this information with the features in the "delivery/re-supply domain"
• Catchment population data and wastage rates are available and, to meet needs, at a minimum level of accuracy.
  • Target population provided by Ministry of Health (MoH), usually based on census projections.
• On hand quantity is accurate. In push-based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how to package deliver ies to an area and load the cold box/distribution truck
• In pull-based SCs, users will reference this information when estimating how much to request for their next order Future follow up: These would be dependent on these requirements.
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User StoriesCould add in additional user stories, e.g. EPI review of requisition.

DiagramsUpdate language based on what's going where, unless I'm missing something?

Annotation

1. *Confirm on hand quantity*Assuming this is happening outside of this flow, so could be pulled off of here.

1. Estimate Need

Tool performs calculation of quantity to order for replenishment. Calculation is the difference of the maximum stock minus the stock on hand times the needs for the upcoming period (annual need *lead time requirement). The maximum stock is what is needed for the current period plus the reserve stock to be maintained.
Definitions of "forecast" tab vaccine calculations:
National level workbook:

Subnational workbook:

1. Submit SMT workbook

DIVO submits workbook to DIVO with ordered quantity.

1. Approve incoming requisition

EPI reviews requested quantities

1. Place order

EPI moves requisition on in process.

Dependencies

Product Inventory List/Supplies tabTabs: Characteristics of safe injection equipment and other supplies
Characteristics of vaccines
Inventory Management

Open Questions

Below is a list of questions to be addressed as a result of this requirements document:

Out of Scope