Forecasting and Estimation Domain Parent Page
This page summarizes the discussions and requirements gathered thus far for this domain.
TO DO:
- For all stories, under I and II, reconcile user personas listed
- Link up stories with the exact source from archive
- Figure out what the "backside" of the card will be – if you have a screenshot from an existing system to print on the other side of the card, figure out which screen shot and send to Alice for printing.
- The following table will be represented as cards and printed out so folks can move things around.
- Vidya Sampath to determine if we print out the stories/pages in the archive OR facilitators have it on the laptop
I - MVP for Domain
<insert description of the table here>
Dependencies/Configuration | Calculate Product Needs | View Calculated Product Needs | View KPI (frequency - persona viewing) | View Reports (frequency - persona viewing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upload product list via CSV | Done using WHO formula includes calculator demo | Static table that does not change. You can see pre-calculated needs for each facility for each vaccine by time period (month, quarter, etc) | Forecast Accuracy aka Forecast Demand Ratio - DISC KPI (quarterly – intermediate levels; annually - natl, global) Calculation: (Doses consumed + wasted) / doses forecasted for this reporting period and geography Doses consumed is derived from SM domain and not program data on monthly immunizations | Report of product needs per facility (as needed - DIVO, RIVO) |
View product list in one unit only (need to choose doses or vials for all countries) ##Should Stockkeeping Units (SKUs) should be the operating assumption to enable use of barcode scanners? If so, vials are the SKU and must be used. However, if doses are the unit for estimating needs (based on targets) then MVP needs to offer both SKU as well as a dose conversion based on doses per vial in order to convert doses need to SKUs to supplied. No OpenLMIS user should have to recalculate doses to vials with a calculator (or worse, by hand) (ChrisW)## | If you need to manipulate each variable that goes into std ISA calculation, then do that outside the system and OpenLMIS provides import function for dose numbers for each facility as CSV or via DHIS2 etc | See forecasted stock versus current stock (forecasted stock comes from ISA) | Report of product needs per district (as needed - DIVO, RIVO) | |
| Viewing of list is fixed (need to choose – by schedule, alphabetical, by product + its associate needs, etc for all countries) | ||||
Co-ordering/bundling (1:1 products are linked within the data tables and shown together and ordered automatically) but any other ratio (1 vial to 5 syringes etc), would show up separately Is this a SM or Requisition feature? |
Open Questions
- Difference between viewing needs versus viewing reports in this domain? Where's the overlap and where's the clear distinction?
- Permission settings – which personas have access to calculations screens/upload config?
II - Nice to Have Features
| Dependencies | Calculate Product Needs | View Calculated Product Needs | View Notifications/ Alerts | View KPI (freq - personas viewing) | View Reports (freq - personas viewing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View product list in either doses or vials (country gets to pick) | VIMS Stories here on how they do product needs calculations using multiple variables and permissions [VIMS] Target Population : add/edit/delete/search/validate FORECAST & ESTIMATION | View Needs within Requisition Form and Distribution Workflow "As a district EPI supervisor, I want to see the needs estimates for all of the facilities in my district so that I can ensure the stock in my district depot is enough to meet their needs via next scheduled re-supply and so I know when to place a requisition order from the level above for additional stock." | Forecast Accuracy aka Forecast Demand Ratio - DISC KPI (quarterly – intermediate levels; annually - natl, global) Calculation: (Doses consumed + wasted) / doses forecasted for this reporting period and geography | Report of product needs per product across different storage points (as needed - intermediate warehouse manager, RIVO, natl) | |
| Viewing of list can be customized by country | Ability to input ISA doses per month etc by user | Change requisition process: skip authorization; fill in form automatically; Is this a ReSupply domain feature? | Report of estimates of a single product over multiple time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly) (as needed - intermediate warehouse manager, RIVO, natl) | ||
| Manipulate catchment population for your area (i.e. ability to override MoH target numbers set in the system) | Automatic re-order prompt based on forecasted amount versus current stock "it sees what I should order every month using the forecasted need and subtracts my stock on hand to suggest a re-order amount" Is this a SM domain feature? | ||||
| Ability override wastage numbers for your area | View needs estimates via multiple options (such as all facilities in a district, all storage points under an intermediate warehouse, all points for a particular product, etc) to be decided by country | ||||
| Provision of extension points to countries to be able to customize forecasting calculation for their specific context |
III - What is the "ask" from small group?
At the end of Round 1, we want the group to report back to the plenary with X.
To get this, the small group will work on the following:
Reference how this is set up here: http://boardthing.com/board/58fee4539ff9028fc8fadba1
Walk everyone through what is proposed – pause to make sure they get it and then do voting.
At the end of Round 2, we want the Facilitator to report back to the plenary with Y.
To get this, the small groups (on rotation, global cafe style), will on work on the following:
IV - Notes to Facilitator
- We will have the generalizable country profiles – review with the group often to see if for both countries needs, the MVP is applicable.
- Always ask about which unit of data capture and data view – doses or vials
- Remind resource constraints and time constraints (software needs to be released by November!) when needed
- Remind folks that simplicity is a beautiful thing! Getting folks to think of end user and the need to not overwhelm them with several features but the minimum necessary to do their job well is key.
V - Archive
The following requirements pages informed the work under this domain:
This is the boardthing link to an internal discussion on this domain:
http://boardthing.com/board/58efeefef41c60ea00e3d60c
Additional Resources : JSI Quantification Guide
OpenLMIS: the global initiative for powerful LMIS software